In a modeled $107.8/bbl oil-shock scenario, Filipino families would pay +₱3,200/mo more.
Energy disruptions don't stop at the pump. Every dollar added to crude oil cascades through diesel, fertilizer, food prices, and transport fares — until it lands on the household budget. This tracker maps those second-order effects across the Philippine economy. Figures on this page model a sustained $107.8/bbl crude scenario — they are not today's prices.
Global benchmark surges on Hormuz transit risk premium
Diesel drives logistics costs — fisheries, agriculture, and public transport hit hardest
Consumer mobility costs spike, demand destruction begins above ₱90/L
Cooking fuel costs squeeze low-income households already spending 40%+ on food
Urea and ammonium sulfate prices track oil — Philippines imports 90% of fertilizer
Transport and fertilizer costs pass through to the staple food of 110M Filipinos
Fishing fleets stay docked when diesel exceeds ₱100/L — supply drops, prices rise
LTFRB approves provisional fare hikes — 28M daily public transport riders affected
Last-mile delivery surcharges appear — e-commerce and food delivery platforms pass costs to consumers
Food CPI accelerates as energy costs compound across the supply chain
Average Filipino household spends ₱3,200 more per month on fuel, food, and transport combined
Diesel is the hidden multiplier
Diesel touches 5 of 11 cascade nodes directly — more than any other fuel. When diesel crosses ₱100/L, fishing fleets dock, jeepney operators demand fare hikes, and fertilizer costs spike. The average Filipino family pays ₱3,200 more per month.
Start here
Wondering how the oil gets here in the first place? Trace the supply chain.
How energy reaches the Philippines →